One month after Bitcoin’s latest halving event, the cryptocurrency community is eager to understand the trajectory of the market’s leading digital asset.
The recent Bitcoin halving, which took place between April 19-20, saw the mining reward cut from 6.25 Bitcoin to 3.125. This event, designed to ensure Bitcoin’s scarcity and protect it from inflation, occurs every four years. Despite expectations, Bitcoin’s price has not seen a significant rally post-halving and currently sits around $65,000. This figure is approximately 12% below its all-time high of $73,803 set in March, but it remains up about 140% over the past year, buoyed by easing inflation and a bullish stock market.
Historically, Bitcoin’s price has surged following halving events. In November 2012, the first halving reduced the reward from 50 Bitcoin to 25. Bitcoin’s price then climbed from $12 to $44 within 100 days and reached $135 in 300 days. The second halving in July 2016, which lowered the reward to 12.5 Bitcoin, saw the price rise from $658 to $1,551 over the same period. Similarly, the third halving in May 2020 cut the reward to 6.25 Bitcoin, propelling the price from $8,601 to $50,941 within 300 days.
Steven Lubka, Managing Director at Swan Bitcoin, expressed optimism about Bitcoin’s growth prospects. In an email, he noted that Bitcoin typically does not experience a sharp rise immediately after a halving but rather appreciates steadily over time. “Bitcoin has never really seen a sharp rise post-halving; it generally occurs on a month-by-month basis as time progresses,” Lubka explained.
Rennick Palley, Founding Partner at Stratos, a crypto venture capital firm, shares a similar outlook. He predicts that Bitcoin will continue its upward trend in the 12 months following the halving.
This year’s halving differs from previous ones partly because Bitcoin peaked a month before the event, making it challenging to maintain the same momentum. Additionally, factors such as increased mainstream adoption and the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs have altered the dynamics influencing Bitcoin’s price movement.
Palley points out that Bitcoin’s price is now heavily influenced by global liquidity dynamics and adoption. He explained, “As fiat money continues to be printed and as more people around the world recognize the value of Bitcoin as a store of value, the price of Bitcoin in dollar terms will continue to rise.”
While Bitcoin’s price dynamics continue to evolve, analysts are not ruling out the possibility of the cryptocurrency reaching the $100,000 mark this year. “It’s always difficult to forecast an exact timeframe, but I expect six-figure Bitcoin on the horizon,” Lubka stated.
According to CoinGecko, a cryptocurrency tracking website, Bitcoin’s price has surged by an astonishing 96,302% since 2013. This historical growth, combined with the current market conditions, leaves many experts confident in Bitcoin’s future potential.
